War against Iran | US attacks: Tehran ponders retaliation

Many people in Iran will only learn indirectly, if at all, about what happened early Sunday morning: Internet access to foreign countries has been cut off. Those trying to reach someone in Iran by cell phone often receive only a cryptic message like this: "Life is full of unexpected surprises, and these surprises can bring us joy or challenge us." It's unclear who is responsible.

What is certain is that the Iranian population currently has only the strictly censored domestic media as a source of information. And they are trying to downplay the impact of the US military attacks on the three Iranian nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. While US President Donald Trump declared in a televised address that Iran's "key uranium enrichment facilities" had been "completely and totally wiped out," the media in Iran report that only access tunnels and above-ground facilities were destroyed, and thus nothing that couldn't be rebuilt in a short time.

Destruction of diplomacy

The rhetoric is also martial: Trump demanded "unconditional surrender!" in capital letters on the social network Truth Social. The Iranian Foreign Ministry declared in a statement that it was Iran's legitimate right to "counter the military aggression and crimes" of the US with all its might. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, however, was more diplomatic: "Last week, we were in negotiations with the US when Israel decided to destroy diplomacy. This week, we were holding talks with Europe's E3 ministers when the US decided to destroy that diplomacy," he wrote on X, formerly Twitter. "For Great Britain and the European Union, it is Iran that must return to the negotiating table. But how can Iran return to something it never left?"

On Sunday, 40 rockets were fired from Iran at Israel; emergency services reported around 90 injuries. The Israeli Air Force again launched attacks on targets in the Islamic Republic; according to its own statements, only military facilities in the west of the country were affected.

And with all this, the question remains: Where will this lead? In Iraq and on the Arabian Peninsula, governments are warning against further escalation and demanding that diplomacy be given a chance. In a speech in Istanbul, however, Araghchi ruled out further negotiations: He did not believe diplomacy would achieve anything now. It must be remembered, however, that the US entry into the war also has a strong emotional component: Most high-ranking members of the Iranian leadership experienced the Islamic Revolution of 1979 and the period afterward. And at that time, the US, along with Israel, was the main enemy.

For the hawks in Iran, a purely diplomatic response may not be enough. The Revolutionary Guards have a variety of easily accessible targets to choose from: military bases and US facilities can be found throughout the region. But the Revolutionary Guards could make the biggest impact without firing a single bullet: Shortly after the US attacks were announced, diplomats first expressed fears that Iran could block the Strait of Hormuz and use its influence over the Houthis in Yemen to also close the Bab al-Mandab Strait to shipping.

The straits could easily be mined

The Strait of Hormuz, only 38 kilometers wide, is the strait between the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean. Around 20 percent of global oil consumption is transported through it by ship; the journey takes you through the territorial waters of Iran and Oman. The 27-kilometer-wide Bab al-Mandab Strait between Yemen and Djibouti is one of the most important shipping routes of all: from the Far East and the Arabian Peninsula to the Red Sea and via the Suez Canal to the Mediterranean. The Bab al-Mandab is the shortest and therefore most cost-effective route for goods from the Far East to Europe.

A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, combined with Western sanctions against Russia, would lead to an oil shortage; it could also plunge Saudi Arabia, in particular, into economic difficulties, as it is extremely dependent on revenues from oil exports.

Meanwhile, in Iran, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is attempting to arrange his succession in case the 86-year-old falls victim to an attack. According to a report in the New York Times, he instructed the 88-member Assembly of Experts to choose his successor from among three candidates he nominated after his death. Earlier, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Thursday, following a rocket attack on a hospital in Beersheba in southern Israel, that Khamenei "must not continue to exist." Khamenei is apparently not taking the threat lightly.