ROUNDUP/Ukraine: How capable is the coalition of the willing?

PARIS/LONDON (dpa-AFX) - Ukraine's Western backers are continuing their discussions in Paris today on securing peace for Ukraine. While an end to the Russian war of aggression is currently nowhere in sight, French President Emmanuel Macron wants to push ahead with the plans and, above all, demonstrate to the United States that he is taking responsibility. And a signal is also intended to be sent to Moscow.

Whether this will succeed, however, is questionable, as the so-called Coalition of the Willing has already met several times without any concrete commitments or results being communicated. The discussion centers on what military security guarantees for Ukraine could look like after a ceasefire or peace agreement. This includes strengthening Ukraine's defense capabilities, but also the possible deployment of troops into Ukraine or close to its borders, as well as further sanctions against Russia. The European NATO members would bear the brunt of any deployment.

Macron: Preparations for guarantees completed

On the eve of the Paris meeting, Macron announced that the supporting countries had completed their preparations for security guarantees. Thanks to the preparatory work of the military chiefs since the Ukraine summit at the White House, the Europeans are now ready to provide security guarantees to Ukraine as soon as a peace agreement is signed, Macron said at a reception with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Paris.

"The contributions prepared, documented and confirmed this afternoon at the level of defense ministers in the strictest secrecy allow us to say: this work is complete and will now be politically approved," Macron said.

Commitments from Washington are slow to arrive

The Europeans had repeatedly made it clear that this would not happen without reassurance from the US. After Zelensky's recent visit to Washington, which brought the heads of state and government of the most important European allies in tow, it looked as if US President Donald Trump could be persuaded to do so. However, concrete commitments from Washington are still pending. He is expected to be informed by phone after the Paris meeting.

Some European heads of state and government also appeared to be softening previous announcements. For example, statements by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Macron initially sounded as if the two NATO members could deploy a kind of armed peacekeeping force. But now, there is more talk of a training and reconnaissance mission. According to the Élysée Palace, there will be no concrete announcements on how the security guarantees will be structured, even after the latest meeting.

Merz only participates in the meeting virtually

The enthusiasm of some coalition partners appears to be waning. Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) and likely the British Prime Minister also plan to participate in the meeting only virtually.

Nevertheless, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte remained optimistic. He expects an agreement on a concept for security guarantees for Ukraine soon. "Tomorrow or soon after tomorrow, there will be clarity about what we can achieve together," he said the day before the talks. This means that we can engage even more intensively with the American side," Rutte said after a meeting with Estonian President Alar Karis in Brussels. According to Rutte, the Europeans, together with other states, are in the process of clarifying the final details at the level of military chiefs, defense ministers, and heads of state and government.

Karis reiterated that Estonia is ready to contribute soldiers to a potential European peacekeeping force. "We continue to participate in this planning," he said.

Putin sticks to old demands

Whether a peace settlement will even be reached remains open, however. At a press conference in China, Russian President Vladimir Putin called on Zelensky to come to Moscow if he wanted to talk with him – but only after everything had been negotiated at the lower level. At the same time, he denied his counterpart's legitimacy. Kyiv rejected the demand for a meeting in the Russian capital as "unacceptable from the outset."

The Kremlin chief also continued to take a tough stance regarding the negotiations. Russia was prepared to continue the war if an agreement acceptable to Moscow was not reached, he said. He expressed confidence of victory. Russian troops were advancing successfully along the entire front, while Ukrainian troops were exhausted, he reiterated his theory of the imminent collapse of the enemy.

Doubts about deterrent effect

Security expert Ed Arnold of the British think tank Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) emphasizes the political importance of the coalition of the willing, but doubts whether a military operation will have the intended deterrent effect. In the worst case, he warns, the deployment of European NATO troops could expose NATO's mutual assistance clause as hollow.

"Will the Americans attack a Russian target because three French soldiers are killed in an incident the Russians will likely portray as an accident? I simply don't believe that," Arnold told the German Press Agency in London. Putin could then exploit the presence of NATO troops in Ukraine to prove that the continued existence of Article 5 of the NATO treaty is less robust than previously assumed.

Germany has been cautious so far

Germany had recently slowed down on the issue. Chancellor Merz said last week that long-term security guarantees could only be decided once there was a ceasefire or a peace agreement. Regarding the question of a possible deployment of ground troops to Ukraine after a ceasefire, he stated that there were no such concrete plans for a military operation, at least not in Germany./cmy/DP/zb