Stocks: Why US entry into war is not the biggest threat to investors

Fears of an escalation of the war in the Middle East are weighing on the stock markets. According to a report by the Bloomberg news agency, the US is preparing for a possible attack on Iran in the coming days. According to capital market expert Stefan Riße, however, investors don't have to worry too much about their stocks – but for another reason.

Because of the US's military strength and Iran's corresponding weakness, Riße assumes that the impact on the stock markets would be minimal if the US were to actually participate in the war between Israel and Iran. The capital markets strategist at the asset manager Acatis is convinced that the US's air superiority is so great that other countries in the region would not want to take on the Americans. Therefore, he does not expect a conflagration in the Middle East . "There will be no price explosion for oil either," Riße told ntv.de.

While delays may occur if oil tankers are no longer able to sail through the Strait of Hormuz, Riße believes the resulting bottleneck would only last four weeks. This would only be relevant for China's oil supply, because the People's Republic, unlike the West, buys a relatively large amount of oil from Iran. Alternatively, however, China could import more oil from Russia. From a purely economic perspective, the situation is therefore not dramatic.

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"We saw this in the Gulf War, the Iraq War, and Israel's wars; in the end, everything calmed down again," says the capital market strategist. The countries in the region are simply not militarily powerful. Unlike the nuclear power Pakistan. However, Risse doesn't currently see any danger from Pakistan either, as the country doesn't pose a threat to the United States.

The expert sees the far greater risk for the stock markets in the unresolved tariff war in the US. The question of whether a recession or even stagflation is imminent there should be much more of a concern for investors, Riße emphasizes. "Rising inflation rates are expected in the coming months, and the rise in oil prices could further fuel this."

The latter wouldn't be a problem in itself, but both tariffs and US President Donald Trump's migration policy could fuel inflation. For example, farmworkers would be missing for the harvest season due to their expulsion. Furthermore, investments would be sharply reduced due to the overall high level of uncertainty.

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"I personally wouldn't sell stocks right now because of the Iran war," says the capital markets strategist. "But we generally have a more cautious stance at the moment." The major stocks and indices are relatively highly valued. "Given the way the US S&P 500 index has performed at such valuations, not much can be expected in the coming years."

This article first appeared on ntv.de. The news portal, like Capital, is owned by RTL Deutschland.