Dunning-Kruger Effect: What we can learn from incompetent people

Sometimes it seems that the most incompetent people have the greatest self-confidence .

• The football fan with the belly who is upset that "that idiot" is shooting miles over the goal again.
• Or the reality TV star who conveys so convincingly that he can govern a country that most people actually vote for him.

As it turns out, there's a system behind it. More precisely, a psychological phenomenon that Charles Darwin apparently noticed , as he is credited with the quote:

Ignorance creates self-confidence much more often than knowledge.

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In the 1990s , the two US psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger dealt so intensively with this observation and the connection between self-perception and competence that Darwin's observation received attention and was finally given a name around 1999 - the obvious Dunning-Kruger effect .

The two social psychologists tested the relationship between self-assessment and ability in an experiment in which they first presented their subjects with tasks and then asked them how well they performed the tasks. The result:

• The worst 25 percent rated their performance as above average – much better than it actually was!
• The top 25 percent rated their performance as above average, but worse than it actually was.

So far, so interesting. But the experiment wasn't over yet. The psychologists then showed the participants the answers of the other volunteers . And now comes the kicker:

• The top 25 percent revised their assessment of their own performance upwards, meaning they were able to realistically assess other people's abilities compared to their own.
• Unfortunately, the worst 25 percent were unable to make any corrections using the additional information; they still rated themselves as above average.

Based on these results, the Dunning-Kruger effect can be summarized as follows:

• (in a certain area) incompetent people overestimate their own abilities (in this area),
• Incompetent people underestimate the abilities of other people (e.g. experts),
• competent people underestimate their own abilities,
• Competent people correctly assess the abilities of others.

One could also say: Anyone who never doubts themselves and always believes that their fellow human beings are all incompetent failures may well become skeptical – because according to the Dunning-Kruger effect, they are probably the biggest failure of all...

Dunning-Kruger effect: cause and effect

Of course, this experiment isn't the only thing that proves the Dunning-Kruger effect (which, incidentally, focuses on the opposite pole of imposter syndrome ). Common sense also agrees with Darwin, Dunning, and Kruger . In order to assess our own competence in something, we ultimately need precisely the competence/ability/experience that makes us competent in that matter or allows us to correctly grasp the associated requirements. Example: If I've never rushed towards Manuel Neuer on a football pitch, I can't judge which direction the ball (or I) would fly if I started kicking. If, on the other hand, I'm really good, I suspect that Neuer will intercept the ball if I just shoot, and that I'll have to come up with something (fake, pass, no plan!) to outwit him.

So. While it may not really matter to us whether others overestimate themselves, the Dunning-Kruger effect can, of course, affect our relationships . For example, someone who appears so self-confident due to their overestimation that they can convince others of their worth can theoretically and inadvertently gain power that might not be optimally used by them—it's been said to have happened!

Other consequences of the Dunning-Kruger effect include:

• Insistence on an opinion to the point of radicalization
• Uncertainty among capable people/experts
• Incorrectness and the resulting disability or disadvantage of others

Admittedly, all of this might be a bit tempting to slap your forehead and wonder about "all these stupid people who overestimate themselves even though they're completely useless." But be careful: The Dunning-Kruger effect is a natural, human phenomenon that can affect us all – after all, everyone is completely clueless in certain areas. (Or would you completely rule out the possibility that you overestimate your potential here and there? And if so, what have we just learned about self-assessment and self-confidence...?) To some extent, the Dunning-Kruger effect is also self-protection : Just imagine how unhappy we would be if we always had a clear and obvious view of everything we CAN'T do!

Besides, strictly speaking, those who are aware of the Dunning-Kruger effect and slap their foreheads instead of drawing conclusions and learning from it are demonstrating the greatest incompetence! In any case, the following five lessons immediately jumped to mind:

1. Anyone who doubts themselves and their abilities is probably capable of more than they think.
2. If someone has a different opinion than us, it doesn't mean we are wrong.
3. No matter how good we are at something, it doesn't necessarily give us self-confidence, because we don't strengthen our self-esteem with performance and success.
4. Confident people are not automatically trustworthy.
5. Nobody has to be able to do everything to be happy and confident in themselves – after all, the same rules apply to all of us!

But there is certainly much more.

sus Brigitte

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