Portugal: Conservatives and right-wing parties win parliamentary elections

A huge stage was set up several days ago at Lisbon's largest traffic junction. The event was to be celebrated there, the most important event of the weekend. But anyone who thought this event would be the national elections scheduled for Sunday was mistaken. The stage was set to celebrate this year's soccer champions.

So it was that on Sunday night, at the Marquês de Pombal roundabout, Sporting Lisbon fans cheered their team and its triumph over Benfica. Even on the weekend of the national elections, football evoked more emotions than politics. This was also evident in conversations with people on the street, on buses, and in restaurants. One often heard that nothing was changing anyway, that there was no one in this country tackling the important issues: the housing shortage, the healthcare system, wages, and, more recently, immigration.

Portugal is heading toward its third general election in four years. Prime Minister Luís Montenegro is losing the confidence of parliament because dubious dealings with a family-owned consulting firm have come to light.

Polls exuded additional boredom. They predicted similar results to the previous election, which had taken place just over a year ago. Not only had the population been called to the polls for the second time in 14 months, but it was also the third time since 2022.

There were some surprises when the election took place on Sunday: Turnout was higher than in previous years. The victory of the conservative Aliança Democrática alliance was more decisive than pollsters had expected. The alliance between the party of current (and future) Prime Minister Luís Montenegro (PSD) and a conservative splinter party won 33.6 percent of the vote.

The right-wing populists' results also exceeded expectations. Their party, Chega (Portuguese for "Enough"), garnered 22.9 percent of the vote. The Socialists of the Partido Socialista (PS), who had governed the country with an absolute majority until 2022, suffered another bitter defeat, falling almost five points short of their 2024 result with 23.2 percent. During the vote count, it even looked as if they would have to settle for third place, behind AD and Chega. Journalists reported on dead silence and empty seats at the Socialists' election party on Sunday evening.

Slight gains were recorded by the parties IL (Liberal Initiative), which is comparable to the German FDP, and the young party Livre (Free), which is to the left of the Socialists and takes up social issues, but unlike other European left-wing parties, supports NATO, Ukraine and the EU.

Luís Montenegro, the former prime minister and leader of the victorious AD coalition, promised "stability" on election night. He continues to rule out an alliance with the right-wing populists, comparable to a coalition between the CDU/CSU and AfD in Germany—although this would force him into a minority government, as before, because even an alliance with the liberal IL is not enough for a majority among the 230 members of the Assembleia da República.

For Montenegro, however, the election result is not only a political but also a personal success. It has freed itself from a corruption scandal that had troubled him last year. Before taking office, he had transferred the ownership of a consulting firm he founded, whose clients included a casino operating company, to his wife and children. However, the consulting fees continued to flow, even though his family members had nothing to do with the business. The company address remained his private residence.

Montenegro had refused to accept a committee of inquiry demanded by the opposition, instead allowing the situation to come to a close in parliament in March: it knowingly lost a vote of confidence . President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa called new elections. "It was his only option," says Lisbon political scientist António Costa Pinto. Montenegro's strategy of using new elections to free itself from entanglements and regain its legitimacy worked this Sunday. This also likely rendered any further revelations about Montenegro's business dealings irrelevant. "Moreover, his party is firmly rooted behind him," says Costa Pinto.

Right-wing populists have also realized that dirty dealings, as such contacts and dealings are sometimes called in Bavaria, do not sustainably outrage the Portuguese population. Last year, they made the alleged corruption of the established parties their main campaign issue. This year, they focused primarily on immigration and xenophobia. "Save Portugal " was their slogan in a campaign that attacked both the sharp increase in migration from South Asia and the Roma communities in their own country. The latter had responded with demonstrations.

Meanwhile, on the eve of election day, President Rebelo de Sousa urged participation in the election, as the world has become "more complex and unpredictable." Not voting, he said, is like burying one's head in the sand. Trump's return to power and the new global situation have created a scenario of "unpredictability in the international economy." This, he said, demands greater responsibility from Europeans, and thus also from the Portuguese.

But it's questionable whether Portugal's people based their decision on Sunday on the global situation. "Foreign policy is rarely an issue in election campaigns," says Patricia Daehnhardt, an expert in international relations at the New University of Lisbon. Issues like housing construction are closer to the Portuguese, as is the mass conversion of traditional homes into vacation or luxury properties for wealthy foreigners.