The world order is a mess: expert
It has been several days since the President of the United States , Donald Trump, announced that Israel and Iran They had agreed to a ceasefire in the conflict that the president called “The 12-Day War.”
Although Israel and Iran avoided open confrontations for decades, a series of recent episodes, triggered by Israel's war with Hamas in the Gaza Strip , coupled with suspicions about the objectives of Iran's nuclear program, have finally broken that precarious balance that led to a direct military confrontation.
Now that the bombs and missiles have stopped falling on both countries, at least for now, we spoke with Dr. Sandra Kanety Zavaleta, professor of political science and international relations at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), to get her perspective on various issues brought to light by this conflict.
1. The war between Israel and Iran is over. What's your take on what happened in the Middle East during those 12 days of conflict?
I wouldn't say the conflict between Israel and Iran is over. The ceasefire doesn't mean the end of the conflict. In fact, it could be interpreted as a pause so both sides can reorganize their forces and consider a medium- or even long-term war strategy. The outlook in that part of the world is very complex. It's a highly volatile region, a powder keg for the interests of the West, and the United States in particular, in the region .
Israel hasn't had an attack of this magnitude on its territory since 1973, it's important to emphasize this. While Israel had already had an indirect confrontation with Iran, through sabotage and the assassination of Iranian scientists, Iran's response to the Israeli attacks was something Israel hadn't experienced in over 50 years. Nor had the United States directly attacked a regional power in a long time.
While President Donald Trump said the war is over and peace has been achieved, I see it more as a ceasefire to strengthen positions and strategies.
2. How do Israel, Iran, and the United States get out of this?
Israel is a country that was created in the 1940s, from my perspective, to guarantee Western interests in the region. This conflict shows us a vulnerable Israel, despite its military strength and the military support offered by the United States. In other words, we saw that its so-called Iron Dome is not infallible. Its prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is volatile and irascible, so we can expect anything in terms of his next decisions.
Regarding Iran, I believe that, despite the attacks it has experienced, it has managed to highlight Israel's vulnerability, which has also been directly attacked, in a region where the actions and interventionism of both Israel and the United States are frowned upon, and where there is a sense of weariness and injustice in the face of Western policies.
Regarding the United States: Act one, Israel attacks Iran; Act two, the United States attacks Iran; Act three, President Trump claims to be the emissary of peace and that the war is over. This is not well-received in terms of international relations, and it has a lot to do with the American president's own volatility when it comes to making decisions. Mind you, he has significant support from many millions of his fellow citizens, a kind of fascist right that supports him regardless of the consequences, including the significant erosion of the United States' image worldwide.
3. What does this conflict tell us about the current international order?
We have just witnessed serious violations of international law, how two nuclear powers attacked a country that does not have nuclear weapons under the pretext that it might at some point develop such weapons. They did so by violating a country's sovereignty, and that should not and cannot be allowed.
The current international order is in disarray. There is a major crisis of multilateralism, cooperation, and peacebuilding. We are witnessing a world order that has institutionalized global militarization as a mechanism for achieving peace and security, and the opposite is happening. There is a breakdown of multilateralism and of institutions that in one way or another advocated for international peace and security, particularly the UN.
The Security Council has had as permanent members for over 70 years the five most heavily armed countries on the planet: the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, and France. They are the countries that spend the most money on military matters, and all of them possess nuclear weapons, which speaks volumes that global peace and security rest on these countries. Sadly, international law can be violated with impunity and violated if it suits the interests of the great powers and the most militarily powerful countries.
4. What might the upcoming negotiations between the United States and Iran address, if they occur?
It's unlikely they'll reach a mutually beneficial negotiation. Iran is a party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which means it, like the rest of its members, is subject to constant review and monitoring mechanisms to prevent it from developing nuclear weapons. However, Israel and the United States ignored the treaty and attacked a country's sovereignty. It will be difficult to reach any kind of agreement, and Iran could even reduce its cooperation in external monitoring, now with the medium-term goal of developing nuclear weapons.
FACT
The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty was opened for signature in 1968 and entered into force on March 5, 1970. With 191 member countries, it is the treaty in the field of nuclear non-proliferation, peaceful uses of nuclear energy, and nuclear disarmament with the largest number of adherents. Non-members are: India, Pakistan, Israel, and South Sudan. North Korea was a member but withdrew in 2003.
WHICH COUNTRIES HAVE NUCLEAR WEAPONS?
The most recent report (2025) from the Federation of American Scientists estimates that there are 12,331 nuclear weapons in the world, distributed as follows:
1. Russia - 5,449
2. United States - 5,277
3. China - 600
4. France - 290
5. United Kingdom - 225
6. India - 180
7. Pakistan - 170
8. Israel - 90
9. North Korea - 50
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