Copper crisis: Sheinbaum confronts Trump over 50% tariff

President Claudia Sheinbaum's administration is facing a major diplomatic and economic crisis. The United States has announced a punitive 50% tariff on Mexican copper imports, a measure that threatens a key national industry and is being imposed outside the USMCA.

Mexico City – Barely at the start of her term, President Claudia Sheinbaum's administration finds herself in the midst of a trade storm. The United States government, under Donald Trump, has announced the imposition of a 50% tariff on copper imports, a measure that directly targets one of Mexico's most important productive sectors and is scheduled to take effect on August 1.

This unilateral decision represents the first major test of the new Mexican government's economic and diplomatic strategy, forcing it into emergency negotiations for which it has already sent a high-level delegation to Washington, DC, comprised of the Secretaries of Economy, Finance, and Foreign Affairs.

The threat is no small feat. Mexico is a copper-producing powerhouse, ranking tenth in the world. The industry, concentrated in states such as Sonora, Zacatecas, and San Luis Potosí, is not only a vital source of foreign currency but also the livelihood of thousands of families.

Trade relations in this sector are also favorable for Mexico. The country maintains a positive trade balance with the United States in the copper sector, amounting to more than $2.5 billion annually. A 50% tariff threatens to erode this advantage and jeopardize the viability of many mining operations.

The copper tariff has highlighted a troubling reality: the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) does not appear to be the foolproof shield it was expected to be. By imposing this measure unilaterally and outside the treaty's dispute resolution mechanisms, the Trump administration is treating Mexico as if it were not a strategic partner, but rather just another trade adversary.

This event occurs at a delicate time, with the formal review of the USMCA scheduled for 2026 and amid a climate of uncertainty due to the so-called "Trump effect" on bilateral relations. The copper crisis, therefore, is not just about one metal; it's about the credibility and effectiveness of North America's most important trade agreement.

In the face of the crisis, experts debate what Mexico's strategy should be. Aribel Contreras, coordinator of the Global Business program at the Universidad Iberoamericana, argues that Mexico's response must be more forceful. She maintains that simply traveling to Washington is insufficient and advocates for a change in the "diplomatic architecture," utilizing all levels, from embassies to consulates, to negotiate directly with U.S. states that depend on Mexican copper.

On the other hand, Roberto Zepeda, of the Center for North American Research at UNAM, suggests that the electoral context in the United States could be, paradoxically, beneficial. He believes that the proximity of the midterm elections could give Mexico leverage in negotiations, as some key states for Trump could push against tariffs to protect their own economies.

How Sheinbaum's administration navigates this complex situation will define not only the future of the copper industry, but also the tone and nature of its relationship with its northern neighbor for years to come.