Israel-Iran War: Why Oil Prices Could Increase Moderately

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Almost all Iranian oil exports are destined for China, limiting the risk of a price spike. Only a closure of the Strait of Hormuz would block exports from other Gulf countries and trigger a crisis.

Haifa oil refinery in Israel, this Sunday, June 15, 2025. (Ahmad Gharabli/AFP)

After three days of Israeli strikes on Iran , the price of a barrel of oil has risen by 15% to an average of $75, which remains moderate given the historically low levels reached in recent weeks. "If the price remains at $75, the increase in the price of a liter of gasoline could reach 8 cents," estimates Jean-Louis Schilansky, former president of the French Union of Petroleum Industries. This moderation is explained by the fact that Iranian oil exports, 1.5 to 2 million barrels per day, are affected by the American ban measures reinstated since 2018.

In short, any country that trades with Tehran in this commodity faces sanctions. For previously taking the risk, the French bank BNP Paribas was fined nearly $10 billion in 2014. As a result, China is virtually the sole customer of Iranian oil. In the event of an interruption in Iranian exports, it would therefore have to turn to other suppliers, with the risk of price pressures. In this case, the member states of the Organization