Campari celebrates the hypothesis of exemption from US duties for the alcoholic sector

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Davide Campari 's stock is running high on Piazza Affari on the hypotheses of excluding alcoholic beverages from Trump's tariff plan towards the European Union. The stock of the alcoholic beverage company is the best on the Milan stock exchange.

According to some press leaks, trade negotiations between the two sides of the ocean are oriented towards an agreement that includes a basic tariff fixed at 10% on European goods, with some exceptions for sensitive sectors, such as airplanes and liquor.

With the deadline for the return of broad tariffs pushed back to August 1, there is a race against time to reach new trade deals with the United States. The contours of a trade deal are still a “moving target,” with any deal needing Trump’s blessing to move forward. In this context, Washington has given no indication that it would exempt politically sensitive industries such as cars, steel and aluminum, or pharmaceuticals, as requested by the EU; however, France, Italy, and Ireland would likely be happiest with exemptions on alcohol and airplanes.

On these rumors, purchases in the sector: not only Campari in Milan, but also Remy Cointreau in Paris and Pernod Ricard . In London, Diageo also did well.

As Equita analysts point out, consistently with the company's indications, current estimates incorporate a tariff impact on the current year of 25 million euros , assuming 20% ​​duties from July onwards, without compensatory actions on sales prices but at the same time benefiting from the "cushion" of local stock. On an annual basis, and in the absence of factors that mitigate the risk, the SIM observes, every 10% of tariffs corresponds to approximately 18-20 million on EBIT, or approximately 3% of the EBIT for the entire year . The analysts' estimate for 2026 instead incorporates a 20% tariff impact for the entire year but also a slight benefit from price increases. Confirming a 10% rate and not 20%, the experts point out, "would therefore have a positive impact of approximately 2%" on the estimate for next year, "while the total cancellation would be worth approximately 4%".