Cancer, the global alarm: over 30 million new diagnoses each year by 2050

One day in 2050, 83,000 people around the world will receive the same news: "You have cancer." It's as if an entire city were struck every morning. In one year, this will mean 30.5 million new diagnoses and 18.6 million deaths. This is revealed by a new analysis by the Global Burden of Disease Study Cancer Collaborators , published in The Lancet , which charts the increase in cancer cases between 1990 and 2023 and outlines forecasts for the next half-century. The study examined data from 204 countries and territories worldwide on 47 types or groups of cancers.

The growth numbers

From 1990 to 2023, cancer cases more than doubled, from 9 to 18.5 million. Over the same period, deaths increased by 74%, to 10.4 million (excluding non-melanoma skin cancers). The future looks even more dramatic: over the next 25 years, new diagnoses will increase by 61%, while cancer deaths will increase by 75%, reaching 18.6 million, driven primarily by population growth and the aging population.

“Cancer is a major contributor to the global burden of disease and is projected to grow in the coming decades, with disproportionate growth in resource-limited countries,” explains Lisa Force , of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) , University of Washington, and lead author of the study, in The Lancet. “Despite the clear need for action, cancer control policies and their implementation remain a secondary priority in global health, and funding is insufficient in many settings.”

Who pays the highest price

The heaviest burden falls on low- and middle-income countries (LMICS). They already account for more than half of new diagnoses and two-thirds of deaths. The numbers demonstrate this: from 1990 to 2023, age-standardized mortality rates decreased by 24% globally, but only thanks to high-income countries; by contrast, incidence rates increased by 24% in low- and middle-income countries, by 29%. Lebanon recorded the largest increase in incidence and mortality, while the United Arab Emirates saw the most significant reduction in incidence and Kazakhstan in mortality. In 2023, the most commonly diagnosed cancer was breast cancer, while cancer of the trachea, bronchus, and lung was the leading cause of cancer-related death.

Prevention: the role of risk factors

Yet, a strategy to prevent new diagnoses and mortality exists, given that the study estimates that 42% of cancer deaths in 2023 (4.3 million deaths) are attributable to 44 modifiable risk factors. The primary one is tobacco, responsible for 21% of global deaths. For men, smoking, poor diet, alcohol, occupational hazards, and air pollution are the main contributors. For women, however, in addition to tobacco, unprotected sex, obesity, unhealthy diet, and hyperglycemia are the most significant. Therefore, there is a real opportunity for prevention. "With four out of ten deaths linked to known, modifiable risk factors, there are enormous opportunities for prevention, along with more accurate diagnoses and timely treatment," emphasizes Theo Vos (IHME).

Reduce mortality from non-communicable diseases by one third

Although the absolute number of cases and deaths is expected to increase significantly between 2024 and 2050, one encouraging fact is that age-standardized rates are not expected to increase. This means that the growth will be primarily due to the growing population and global aging. This improvement, however, is still far from achieving the ambitious United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target of reducing premature mortality from noncommunicable diseases, including cancer, by one-third by 2030.

A challenge of fairness

While the rise in cancer rates is largely due to aging and population growth, inequality in access to care cannot be overlooked. Many countries lack early diagnosis, innovative treatments, and even registries to monitor data. "The rise in cancer rates in low- and middle-income countries is an imminent disaster," warns Meghnath Dhimal of the Nepal Health Research Council . "Cost-effective interventions and multisectoral collaboration are urgently needed." Experts reiterate that investing in prevention and strengthening health systems must become a priority.