Heatwave deaths tripled with climate change

Climate change tripled heatwave deaths in European cities during last week's heatwave, according to a rapid study led by scientists from Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, and reported by Greenpeace. According to the study, climate change intensified the recent European heatwave and increased the expected number of heat-related deaths by approximately 1,500 in 12 European cities. Focusing on ten days of heat from June 23 to July 2, researchers estimated the death toll using peer-reviewed methods and found that climate change tripled the number of heat-related deaths, with fossil fuel use increasing heatwave temperatures by up to 4 degrees Celsius across all cities.

"About 1,500 of the estimated 2,300 heat-related deaths, or 65%, are the result of climate change," the study reads. "Climate change was responsible for 317 estimated excess deaths in Milan, 286 in Barcelona, ​​235 in Paris, 171 in London, 164 in Rome, 108 in Madrid, 96 in Athens, 47 in Budapest, 31 in Zagreb, 21 in Frankfurt, 21 in Lisbon, and 6 in Sassari." According to the researchers, this means that the likely death toll from climate-change-driven heat in many European cities was higher than other recent disasters, including the 2024 Valencia floods (224 deaths) and the 2021 floods in northwest Europe (243 deaths). People aged 65 and over accounted for 88% of climate change-related deaths.

"To end this crisis, governments must abandon fossil fuel use and truly transition to renewables, and large fossil fuel companies must start paying for the damage they are causing with their uncontrolled emissions," says Federico Spadini of Greenpeace Italy's climate campaign.

According to Imperial College, 500 people died between Rome and Milan due to the heat.

During the 10-day heatwave that hit Europe, "climate change was responsible for an estimated 317 excess deaths in Milan, 286 in Barcelona, ​​235 in Paris, 171 in London, 164 in Rome, 108 in Madrid, 96 in Athens, 47 in Budapest, 31 in Zagreb, 21 in Frankfurt, 21 in Lisbon, and 6 in Sassari," according to a rapid study conducted by Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and reported by Greenpeace.

According to the study, "approximately 1,500 of the estimated 2,300 heat-related deaths, or 65%, are the result of climate change." The study estimates that approximately 2,300 people have died due to extreme temperatures in cities. However, if the climate had not been warmed by the burning of fossil fuels, there would have been approximately 1,500 excess deaths, meaning that climate change is responsible for 65% of the excess deaths. The findings, it states, show how relatively small increases in warmer temperatures can trigger huge mortality spikes when the heat overwhelms people with underlying health conditions, such as heart disease, diabetes, and respiratory problems, as identified in previous studies.

The findings also highlight how heat is an underestimated threat: most heat-related deaths occur in homes and hospitals, out of public view, and are rarely reported, researchers say. People aged 65 and over were the hardest hit, accounting for 88% of excess climate change-related deaths, due to higher rates of existing health conditions. The findings highlight that older people in Europe are at increasing risk of premature death, as fossil fuel burning causes hotter, longer, and more frequent heatwaves. However, researchers warn that heat can be dangerous for all age groups, with an estimated 183 deaths among people aged 20 to 64.

Around 90% of deaths in Madrid have been attributed to climate change, the highest among cities, due to a sharp rise in heat that has seen temperatures surpass the threshold at which heat-related deaths increase rapidly.