Czech inflation refuses to be chased to the target. In June it jumped again
June brought a significant increase in CPI inflation in the Czech Republic, which thus remained above the 2 percent target of the Czech National Bank. The main culprits of this inflationary escapade were rapidly rising food prices.
In June 2025, inflation in the Czech Republic amounted to 2.9% and was significantly higher than in May, when it was 2.4%. This is yet another reading that exceeds The 2 percent inflation target of the Czech National Bank. This after the initial successes is again having trouble keeping inflation in check.
CNB was the first in our region to respond to lockdown inflation by starting a cycle of interest rate hikes in June 2021. percentage points. The Czechs started with just 0.25%, and reached 7% in just a few a year later. Thanks to this quick and decisive response, in early 2024 Czech CPI inflation returned to the 2 percent target.
However, when the CNB started to quickly lower interest rates ( going down to 3.5% in May 2025 ), inflation began to slip away from the target. Suffice it to say, that in the previous 15 months it had only met its targets twice CNB 2%.
The June increase in the CPI index was 0.3% compared to May, when the consumer price index rose by as much as 0.5% month-on-month. These are not results consistent with achieving 2% per year. This would require averages monthly CPI increases of around 0.17%. The Czech problem also remains the "dragging" in the annual dynamics the high reading from January, when CPI jumped by 1.3% mdm.
It is worth noting that this "above-standard" inflation The Czechs achieved despite the global downward trend in fuel markets. Thanks ago, energy prices among our southern neighbors in June were 5% lower than a year earlier. However, the prices of services, which prices rose by an average of 5% YoY (and a solid 0.5% MoM). Even faster the prices of unprocessed food went up (by as much as 9.6% y/y).
These are just quick estimates of the Czech CPI. The full report is available at We will see June on July 10th.
For comparison, analogous The inflation rate in Poland in June was 4.1% compared to 4.0% in May. We know However, from July onwards, Polish CPI inflation will drop significantly due to the "falling out" last year's increases in electricity, gas and district heating tariffs. Economists estimate this effect at about 1 percentage point. Therefore, we should already see the July data to get CPI inflation below 3%. That is, at a level very close to Czech.
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