Government decides to increase ethanol blend in gasoline to 30%

The increase in the ethanol blend in gasoline and biodiesel to 30% is on the agenda of the meeting of the National Energy Policy Council (CNPE) on the morning of this Wednesday (25), which will be attended by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), accompanied by the Minister of Mines and Energy, Alexandre Silveira. The increase in biodiesel in diesel to 15%, B15, will also be evaluated.

The proposal to change the ethanol content in gasoline from 27% to 30% is in line with the Fuel of the Future Law, which was approved and sanctioned last year and already allows a blend of up to 35% ethanol. To support the CNPE's decision, feasibility tests were carried out by the Mauá Institute of Technology (IMT), at the request of the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME), and were completed in February.

Experts point out that using ethanol as a blend in gasoline reduces the consumption of fossil fuels, replacing them with renewable fuels. The combustion of ethanol emits only a third of the CO₂ produced by gasoline, and part of this gas is reabsorbed by the cultivation of sugarcane, the raw material for biofuel.

A study by Itaú BBA's agricultural consultancy indicates that, if confirmed, the change in the blend could affect fuel prices for drivers, with an expected 0.6% increase in the price of regular gasoline and 3.6% in hydrated ethanol at gas stations. Anhydrous ethanol, used in the blend, could increase by 4.3%.

The determining factors for the price increase are the increase in demand for anhydrous ethanol and the decrease in the supply of hydrated ethanol for direct consumption, without an immediate increase in the total supply of ethanol in the market. The consultancy forecasts an increase in the production of corn ethanol, while the production of sugarcane ethanol is expected to fall, with mills prioritizing sugar production.

At the same time, increasing the ethanol content in gasoline could reduce the need to import pure gasoline. Projections from the Energy Research Company (EPE) indicate that net imports of pure gasoline could be eliminated from 2030 onwards, if the ethanol content reaches 33%. Last year, Brazil imported 2.7 million cubic meters of pure gasoline, which represented 8.8% of national demand, with the Netherlands, Spain and Russia as the main suppliers.