New threats from the EU: disconnection from SWIFT, lowering of oil ceiling, sanctions against Nord Stream

The 17th package of anti-Russian sanctions has not yet been properly implemented, but Brussels is already in full swing discussing how to annoy Moscow in the next, 18th... New economic threats and restrictions are appearing in the light of day. In particular, against the Nord Streams, which have been blown up and have not been working for a long time. European officials also want to lower the price ceiling for Russian oil. And they also plan to disconnect more than 20 banks from our country from the SWIFT system. How will this affect the Russian economy?

Let's start with something that doesn't fit into common sense at all. With the sanctions against Nord Stream - they mislead even seasoned experts. The fact is that these energy routes have not been working since the fall of 2022, when three of the four pipeline branches were blown up as a result of a terrorist attack.

Since then, heated discussions have arisen in Europe on the topic of restoring these facilities and resuming supplies of cheap and accessible Russian fuel. Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 are capable of pumping 55 billion cubic meters of gas per year to European consumers. And one can understand European consumers. Until the fall of 2022, a thousand cubic meters cost about $250, and today, without Russian supplies, from $400 and up...

According to Sergey Pikin, director of the Energy Development Fund, even if sanctions against Nord Stream are introduced, this will not affect the Russian energy sector in any way. Just as it did not affect the previous 2.5 years. "A blank shot," he says.

We ask Freedom Finance Global's leading analyst Natalia Milchakova about the threat of lowering the oil price ceiling. What are the risks here and are there any?

"The European Union is discussing the issue of lowering the price ceiling for Russian oil from the current $60 to $50 per barrel," she reports. "Despite the fact that the "ceiling" has existed for three years, the Russian economy has grown by 32% by 2022, so the goals of the West introducing the current "ceiling" on oil from our country have not been achieved.

Russia categorically refused to sell its oil to any importers at a price below the "ceiling". It should also be taken into account that the main drivers of growth in our economy in 2023-2024 and this year were already non-raw materials sectors and the manufacturing industry."

Let us recall that the Russian Ministry of Finance estimated the average price of Russian Urals in 2023 at $63 per barrel, and in 2024 at $69 per barrel, which exceeded the established "ceiling" by 5% and 15%, respectively. Moreover, the average price of other grades of Russian oil with a lower sulfur content (for example, ESPO) was supplied to importers even higher than the average price of Urals. If this year the West lowers the price ceiling for Russian oil to $50, Russia will still sell oil to friendly countries above the "ceiling", although more significant discounts are possible for regular customers.

"Budget oil and gas revenues in 2025 may decrease, and the budget deficit may increase. But the new price ceiling will not be to blame for this, but lower oil prices this year compared to 2024 prices. However, if the Brent price collapses to $50 or lower, OPEC+ will certainly reconsider its decision to increase oil production in order to prevent a collapse of the oil market," Milchakova asserts.

As for disconnecting Russian banks from the SWIFT system, most of them have been disconnected for a long time. But the strange thing is that practically nothing has changed in our lives. Will this measure hit us if the European Union decides to add another 20 Russian credit institutions to its “black list”?

- The very fact that we did not feel the disconnection of SWIFT indicates that this measure, although it sounds threatening, does not play any role, - explains financial analyst, candidate of economic sciences Mikhail Belyaev. - It is necessary to keep in mind that this is not a settlement system: money from bank to bank in any case goes through the correspondent account system. And SWIFT notifies banks that some payment needs to be made - nothing more. And you can notify in any way: by phone, by fax, or through a messenger on a horse.

According to the analyst, when the first problems with SWIFT appeared in Russia, the Central Bank quickly developed a complete analogue of this financial messaging system on its platform. And many domestic banks successfully use it. "Yes, businessmen sometimes talk about difficulties with mutual settlements," Belyaev continues. "Let's say they delivered wheat to some country, but the money for the goods takes too long. Let them set conditions for importers who buy their products so that they connect to the Central Bank platform."