Who wins the Buenos Aires City election: despite the ban, new polls have appeared for Santoro, Adorni, and Lospennato.

The polling war in the city , which began before the closing of the lists on March 29, continues until election day itself, despite the ban. In Buenos Aires City, the limit is more lax than at the national level, and provides for only 48 hours of statistical silence , compared to the one-week restriction established nationwide.

However, this Friday and Saturday, new studies continued to appear, focusing specifically on Leandro Santoro, Manuel Adorni, and Silvia Lospennato , the three candidates who are considered favorites in the previous analyses . They represent the Peronist K Party, the Libertarian Party, and the Macri Party, respectively.

It happens all the time. Pollsters adjust their forecasts right up to the last minute , trying to assess whether there's a final surge or some event (like the fall of the Clean Sheet) that could generate an unexpected shift in the vote.

Or do they leave their final, now more precise, document after having worked for a candidate? These questions also arise in every election.

Clarín was able to see the latest studies by Proyección, Jorge Giacobbe , and Federico González . The former is the consulting firm run by Manuel Zunino and usually has closer ties to Peronism and progressivism. Giacobbe is a well-known pollster, with a strong presence on TV and a strong anti-K Party discourse (he measured Patricia Bullrich, among others). González , meanwhile, is an analyst with greater contact with the opposition, now with a peculiarity: he himself is a candidate on the ticket of union leader Marcelo Peretta.

It's one of 17 lists competing for just 30 seats in the local legislature. This fragmentation is rarely seen and makes predictions somewhat difficult.

With nuances, two of these new polls support the majority's prediction, which has been warning of a three-way polarization, with Santoro, Adorni, and Lospennato holding over 70% of the vote between them. The K-12 candidate from "Es Ahora Buenos Aires" is the favorite, and Adorni and Lospennato are battling it out at the bottom, with the presidential spokesperson generally ahead. One, however, supports those who say the Libertarian candidate could win.

Before the ban, Clarín was able to observe and analyze some 30 surveys from 14 consulting firms : the majority (from Proyección to Tendencias , from Synopsis to Opina Argentina , from Trespuntozero to Aresco , from CIGP to Casa Tres ) had Santoro first in this process, with stable percentages, between 24 and 28 points.

But five pollsters ( Equipo Mide , Opinaia , Giacobbe , DC Consultores , and Isasi-Burdman ) broke with that logic and showed him leading Adorni . If the spokesperson wins, they'll have reason to celebrate.

Lospennato, on the other hand, always hovered between second and third place , often at the bottom of the podium. She was even occasionally besieged from below by her former ally Horacio Rodríguez Larreta , who decided to seek political revenge against her party and ran on his own list (Volvamos Buenos Aires).

Larreta's numbers are the most unstable . Some have him above 10 points, close to the PRO candidate; others give him just 4 or 5, in this case competing with another "blue" party, Ramiro Marra , ousted from La Libertad Avanza and now representing the historic Ucedé party.

The rest, a dozen candidates from right to left, plus the "famous" Ricardo Caruso Lombardi, are vying for a seat. It's estimated that 3% of the vote is needed to secure it.

The other big unknown in this election is turnout . In this year's five local elections (the constituent assembly in Santa Fe and the legislative elections in Salta, Chaco, San Luis, and Jujuy ), turnout hovered around 60%, a lower figure than in similar elections in previous years.

It is believed that in the City, participation could be slightly higher.

In addition to the classic election results, this time there will be a second look at the results , taking into account the open internal dispute that PRO and La Libertad Avanza decided to play. Beyond a possible Santoro victory, Mauricio Macri and Javier Milei will be closely watching who wins this right-wing dispute.

It's assumed that the winner will be better positioned for what's coming next . This is, basically, the negotiation for the Buenos Aires elections. In the case of Macri's party, there will also be a very local analysis. How will the Legislature and eventual governability fare if the PRO finishes third?

While formally there aren't any major changes to the blocs , we'll have to see how those who were allies of Prime Minister Jorge Macri in the local Parliament, such as the Radical leaders, the Civic Coalition, or the Larretists, perform.