Jędrzej Bielecki: Germany is afraid of Poland, it is changing its approach to migration

The gesture of goodwill ultimately proved to be a grave mistake. On May 8, immediately after taking over the reins of the new German government, Friedrich Merz flew first to Paris and then to Warsaw. This was intended to show the importance Berlin attached to its two most important neighbors.

However, at the time Merz spoke with Donald Tusk, Dobrindt was introducing reinforced controls on the German borders, including the Oder and Neisse. In this way, he was fulfilling his election promises to curb illegal immigration. At the same time, Germany announced that it would return people who had entered its country illegally to the countries where they had previously resided. However, the price of this move for Poland turned out to be high.

In 2015, the Germans contributed to PiS taking power

– Germany can of course decide who it wants on its territory, but Poland will also decide who it will accept – said Donald Tusk firmly at a press conference .

However, it did not help much. The subject of Germany sending back emigrants, although fully compliant with EU regulations, became a significant fuel for Karol Nawrocki's victory in the presidential election. Immediately afterwards, polls appeared indicating an extremely strong position of the Confederation, which also builds its position on aversion to its western neighbor. In the latest IBRiS survey for "Rzeczpospolita", the party of Sławomir Mentzen and Krzysztof Bosak enjoys over 20 percent support . The vision of a coalition in 2027 between the nationalist-populist PiS and far-right groups, perhaps even with Grzegorz Braun's Confederation of the Polish Crown, began to take shape.

Germany has often made poor decisions in its relations with Poland in the past, which then had a disastrous impact on the political scene in Poland. This was the case in 2015, when, at Angela Merkel's urging, Donald Tusk took over the position of President of the European Council, leaving a free field in Poland for Jarosław Kaczyński. And also when, at the same time, the German Chancellor forced the PO government to adopt the EU's mandatory refugee relocation system just before the parliamentary elections, which PiS meticulously exploited in its campaign. Then, just as now, Berlin could have suspended its activities for a few weeks. Wait for Polish voters to cast their votes. This is what it has done many times, for example in relations with France.

Without Poland, defending Germany against Russia is unrealistic

Will the same thing now begin in relations with Poland? Dobrindt's visit perhaps indicates this. He spoke about the most flexible application of controls on the Polish-German border, up to their complete abandonment. With his guest Tomasz Siemoniak he also talked about jointly strengthening Poland's border with Belarus and Russia. Both took up the subject of establishing centres for emigrants outside the Community.

This change may be due to the Germans' awareness of the threat that Russian imperialism poses to them. Berlin has finally begun to take the reconstruction of the Bundeswehr and support for Ukraine seriously for the first time. There is increasing evidence that Donald Trump no longer wants to defend Europe, at least when it comes to conventional weapons. In this context, Poland is becoming fundamentally important to Germany. It stands in the way of a potential Russian attack. However, our country will only fulfill the task of a buffer with a responsible government – ​​one undoubtedly thinks about the Spree. A government that is worth helping before it is too late.