Izvestia: Key rate may fall to 19% by the end of 2025

In an optimistic scenario, the rate could fall to 17%, but if oil prices fall by the end of the year, it will only fall to 20%, experts interviewed by the publication believe.

The key rate could fall to 19% by the end of 2025. More than half of the 20 financial market analysts surveyed by Izvestia adhere to this option in the baseline scenario.

Experts expect that the rate will be lowered for the first time in the summer. The slowdown in lending and the decline in demand for goods and services in the Russian Federation will gradually achieve a stable trend towards slowing inflation. However, the Central Bank will act carefully. More decisive steps are possible only in two cases: if the economy slows down too quickly or if the Ukrainian conflict is resolved, which most analysts do not include in the baseline scenario, the publication says.

In an optimistic scenario, the rate could fall to 17%. However, if oil prices fall by the end of 2025, the key rate will only fall to 20%.